宏观经济深度报告：反内卷系列一：将“反内卷”进行到底

Policy Evolution - The anti-involution policy has evolved through three stages: risk warning (early 2023 to June 2024), direction clarification (July 2024 to June 2025), and systematic implementation (July 2025 to present) [2] - The core focus is to address local protectionism and market segmentation, which leads to resource misallocation, supporting the construction of a unified national market [2] Implementation Characteristics - The implementation features include inter-ministerial collaborative governance, industry self-discipline, dual control of capacity and prices, and diverse identification standards [3] - Traditional upstream industries like coal and steel rely mainly on administrative intervention, while emerging sectors like polysilicon and photovoltaics emphasize industry self-discipline [3] Major Obstacles - Since the second half of 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) has gradually rebounded, but fixed asset investment growth has sharply declined, particularly in manufacturing [4] - Current demand insufficiency is the primary driver of PPI trends, contrasting with the supply-side structural reform period in 2015 [4] Stage Effects - The PPI is expected to turn positive in the first half of 2026, aided by a five-year weight adjustment and the potential for demand stabilization [5] - The cumulative year-on-year fixed asset investment is down by 3.80%, while the monthly retail sales growth is at 0.90% [6] Market Trends - The anti-involution policy has led to a tightening of supply, which has reduced the rate of decline in PPI, indicating a gradual recovery in the price system [34] - However, the decline in investment in excess capacity sectors and the insufficient new investment in emerging fields pose challenges to growth [34]