软商品日报：震荡偏弱-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Soft commodities are rated as oscillating weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a pattern of "supported by domestic fundamentals and suppressed by international macro factors". Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term impact of factors such as the resumption of work in textile enterprises after the Spring Festival, global trade policies, and US new cotton planting intentions should be noted [1] - The sugar production in Yunnan has increased, while that in Guangxi has decreased. The international raw sugar lacks obvious driving forces. The domestic sugar price is close to the crushing cost of southern sugar mills, with limited downward space and weak short - term upward driving forces, continuing the bottom - oscillating pattern [2][3] Summary by Related Content Cotton - The cotton market is in a "domestic fundamental support, international macro suppression" pattern. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream production enters the final stage, and the overall market driving force weakens. The recent market transactions are mainly the implementation of previous "locked basis, post - pricing" contracts. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillating pattern before the festival [1] Sugar - Yunnan: As of January 31, 2026, 50 sugar mills in Yunnan have been in operation, with 8.1447 million tons of sugarcane crushed, producing 984,100 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 17.56%; the sugar production rate is 12.08%. The cumulative sales of new sugar are 532,000 tons, with a sales rate of 54.06%, basically the same as the same period last season. The industrial inventory is 452,100 tons. In January, 250,600 tons of sugar were sold, higher than the same period last season [2] - Guangxi: As of January 31, 2026, 33.4306 million tons of sugarcane have been crushed, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; 4.029 million tons of mixed sugar have been produced, a year - on - year decrease of 788,000 tons; the mixed sugar production rate is 12.05%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The cumulative sugar sales are 1.5506 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 830,300 tons; the sales rate is 38.49%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.94 percentage points. In January, 2.0871 million tons of sugar were produced, a year - on - year increase of 21,500 tons; 665,800 tons of sugar were sold, a year - on - year decrease of 82,900 tons; the industrial inventory is 2.4784 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42,300 tons [2] - International and domestic sugar market: The Brazilian sugar production is less than expected, but the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in India, puts pressure on prices. The domestic sugar price follows the market decline, but it is close to the crushing cost of southern sugar mills, with limited downward space. The statement in the No. 1 Central Document about keeping agricultural product prices in a reasonable range strongly supports sugar prices. The short - term upward driving force is weak, and it continues the bottom - oscillating pattern [3]