螺纹日报：缩量震荡-20260204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebar market is in the traditional off - season before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, but the concentrated shutdown of short - process steel mills will gradually relieve the supply pressure. The demand is continuously weak due to the suspension of construction sites and the end of winter storage, with significant inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the short term, with limited fluctuation range. The post - festival market depends on inventory de - stocking speed and policy support, especially the implementation rhythm of "two - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment realization [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 6,899 lots on Wednesday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (614,090 lots). It fell below the short - term 5 - day and medium - term 30 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,100 yuan/ton, a high of 3,105 yuan/ton, closing at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons week - on - week to 1.9983 billion tons, and was 2.216 billion tons higher year - on - year. The production rebounded slightly this week and was significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating accelerated resumption of production by steel mills, which put short - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Demand: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal pattern of construction site shutdowns before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, showing a year - on - year recovery. As of the week ending January 29, the apparent demand was 1.764 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 912,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.785 billion tons. There was still support from winter - storage demand before the festival [2] - Inventory: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, remaining at a low level. As of the week ending January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.76 billion tons. Social inventory was 3.264 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.328 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.388 billion tons. Mill inventory was 1.4913 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 150,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.372 billion tons. The inventory pressure on mills and social inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank signaled moderate monetary easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing expenditure. However, due to the weak real - estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited. The easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Rising prices of raw materials (coking coal and coke), inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and loose macro expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory de - stocking, accelerated resumption of blast - furnace production, cautious winter - storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]