铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需支撑有所转弱-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The demand side has relatively stable rigid demand. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, but the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount, and the market remains in a narrow - range oscillation [4] Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated within a narrow range during the day, closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton or 0.51% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 241,000 lots, the open interest was 516,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.866 billion yuan. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to further tests near the support level of 775 [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the main swap contract was 102.6 (- 0.2) US dollars/ton. The spot price was firm, while the swap price declined slightly [1] - The converted price of PB powder at Qingdao Port to the futures price was 831.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between the May - September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September - January contracts was 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure + positive basis, showing a slight break in the short term. From this perspective, the downside space may still be limited [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of shipments from Brazil. The arrival volume continued to decline, as the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to the arrival. There are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. On the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills are accelerating inventory replenishment, and as the replenishment progresses, the support for prices may gradually weaken [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory replenishment speed has accelerated, and the total inventory pressure is still accumulating. The market sentiment has weakened, and both the futures and spot prices are under pressure [2] - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and there is uncertainty about the post - holiday demand. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] Macro - level Analysis - At the domestic macro - level, it is judged that the positive policy expectations continue to be the macro - mainline. From the perspective of policy changes, the expectation that policies will be intensified in the first quarter to achieve a good start for the economy in the "15th Five - Year Plan" year is gradually strengthening, and the overall policy environment is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3] - In overseas macro - aspects, one of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but it is expected to have limited impact on the market. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure by the market. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to two risk events with high uncertainty: the situation between the US and Iran and the US government shutdown [3]