养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn in the Northeast is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can be considered to buy on dips if there is a large decline [1] - Egg inventory in February is expected to have a higher monthly center of gravity than in January, which will have a phased impact on prices, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] Summary by Category Soybeans - The soybean market in the Northeast has remained stable recently, with only narrow price fluctuations and a significant decline in trading activity [1] - On February 2, 60,608 tons of reserve soybeans from 2022 were auctioned, all were sold, with an average price of 4,297.6 yuan/ton and a maximum premium of 310 yuan/ton, but the market atmosphere has not improved [1] - Most traders are mainly digesting inventory and fulfilling previous contracts [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of pre - festival grain sales, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, resulting in a weak trend [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, and the supply and demand sides are in a continuous game. The price in North China is low, and the actual supply increase is limited. The corn price is slightly stronger [1] Eggs - In January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links of eggs in the main producing areas decreased significantly, with the production - link inventory days at 1.01 days (a 2.88% month - on - month decrease) and the circulation - link inventory days at 1.09 days (a 5.22% month - on - month decrease) [2] - The estimated average inventory days in the production link in February is about 2.50 days, with a significantly higher monthly inventory center of gravity than in January [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (a 2.9% decline), and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national live pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million (a 2.4% increase) [2] - At the end of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (a 0.5% increase) [2] - From late January to early February, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down, and the worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized [3]