热卷日报：缩量震荡-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures showed a shrinking - volume oscillatory trend today. With the increase in the cost of raw materials (coking coal and coke), there is cost support in the short - term. The short - term pressure is around the 30 - day moving average, and the support below is at the previous low. Adopt a cautiously bullish approach. Currently, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely monitored: the inventory depletion speed and the implementation rhythm of "two major" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support will determine the medium - term rebound space [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Prices: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday decreased compared to the previous trading day, with an increase of 5,482 in open interest and a trading volume of 285,185 lots. The intraday low was 3,266 yuan and the high was 3,285 yuan. It oscillated within the day, breaking below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages in the short - term, and closed at 3,274 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.18% [1] - Spot Prices: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between the futures and the spot was - 4 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. The current output is at a medium - to - high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production rhythm before the Spring Festival and their production enthusiasm increased [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand increased slightly this week and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week - on - week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week - on - week, while the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week - on - week, the inventory pressure was marginally relieved, and the overall inventory was in the destocking stage [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products were introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task in 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - Bullish Factors: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]