行情趋稳：尿素日报-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end of the session. Although upstream factory quotes declined, futures turning positive indicates a potential price stabilization tomorrow. The market is expected to be weakly stable before the Spring Festival and attention should be paid to the purchasing situation during the farming peak season [1]. - The daily urea production remains stable, and the inventory continues to decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, upstream factories face increasing pressure to attract orders, and spot prices may be reduced to attract orders without positive news. The demand from downstream factories is expected to peak during the farming season after the Spring Festival [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1772 yuan/ton, closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The trading volume was 228,271 lots, a decrease of 3727 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2157 lots and short positions decreased by 942 lots [2]. - Spot: Upstream factory quotes declined, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with actual transaction prices in some Henan and Shandong factories between 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton. The price is expected to stabilize tomorrow [1][5]. 3.2. Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract was - 27 yuan/ton, weaker than the previous trading day [7]. 3.3. Supply Data - On February 4, 2026, the national daily urea production was 209,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.86% [8]. 3.4. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from the previous week, a 2.79% decrease [9]. 3.5. Pre - sale Orders - As of February 6, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days from the previous period, a 33.84% increase [9]. 3.6. Warehouse Receipts - On February 4, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,969, a decrease of 212 from the previous trading day [3].