药明合联（2268.HK）：2025年初步业绩大致符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 aligns with expectations, projecting over 45% year-on-year revenue growth, over 70% gross profit growth, and over 38% net profit growth attributable to shareholders [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be approximately 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on building commercial production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new production lines in Wuxi and Singapore [2][10]. - The acquisition of Hefei and Dongyao Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and client network, contributing to a market share of over 24% in the global ADC outsourcing market [10][11].