：1月全球投资十大主线

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - In January 2026, global asset performance ranked as follows: commodities (9.06%) > global stocks (3.02%) > global bonds (0.94%) > RMB (0.46%) > 0% > USD (-1.35%) [2] - The global fund manager sentiment index rose from 7.3 to 8.1, marking the highest level since July 2021, with cash levels dropping to a new low of 3.2% [5] - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield reached 4.0%, raising concerns about Japan's debt amid a proposed ¥25 trillion supplementary budget [6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair led to significant market volatility, with the dollar index rebounding after hitting a low on January 27, 2026 [3] - The implied volatility skew of U.S. Treasury options has been rising since mid-October 2025, indicating that investors are more concerned about inflation risks than economic recession [4] - The copper-to-oil ratio has been increasing, suggesting a potential rise in the profitability of the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - The divergence between the dollar OIS and the performance of cyclical versus defensive sectors in U.S. stocks indicates a "Goldilocks" environment, but high valuations in cyclical stocks may face correction risks if OIS rates rise [5] - The sentiment among global fund managers indicates a shift in preference, with geopolitical conflicts now seen as the largest tail risk, as opposed to previous concerns about AI bubbles and bond yield volatility [11] - The expectation of RMB appreciation has led to the shadow variable of the counter-cyclical factor exceeding 500 basis points, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards Chinese assets [10]