宏观固收周报（20260126-20260201）：美联储“缩表”并非新事物，降息或超预期-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week (20260126 - 20260201), U.S. stocks' three major indices declined while the Hang Seng Index rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.17%, 0.34%, and -0.42% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.38% [3]. - A - shares with large - market capitalization rose and those with small - market capitalization fell, and most growth sectors declined. The wind full A index changed by -1.59%, and different indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc. had different changes [4][5]. - In terms of industry performance, 10 out of 30 CITIC industries rose and 20 fell. Leading sectors included petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, and non - ferrous metals, with weekly gains of over 3.0%. ETFs in oil and gas, energy, etc. led with weekly gains of over 5% [5]. - China's treasury bond yields showed mixed changes in the past week. The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.11%, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.86 BP to 1.8112% [6]. - The yield of ultra - long - term U.S. treasury bonds increased, and the yield curve steepened. As of January 30, 2026, the 10 - year U.S. treasury bond yield changed by 2 BP to 4.26% [7]. - The U.S. dollar depreciated. The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.40%, and the exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.27%, -0.33%, and -0.68% respectively. The exchange rates against the on - shore and off - shore RMB were divergent [8][9]. - Gold prices tumbled on January 30, 2026. London gold spot prices rose by 0.72% to $4981.85 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices fell by 1.14% to $4879.60 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also rose [10]. - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Most members supported this decision, and only two members supported a 25 - BP interest - rate cut [11]. - The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by nearly $2.4 trillion in the past three years. If Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, the interest - rate cut may exceed market expectations, which is positive for asset prices [12]. - In the future, for A - shares, structural opportunities are worth exploring, including satellite, commercial aerospace, military, technology, and resource sectors. For the bond market, the Chinese central bank may cut interest rates in 2026, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield above 1.80% has long - term investment value. For commodities and exchange rates, if the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken, and the upward trend of precious metals and other commodities remains unchanged [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market - U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.17%, 0.34%, and -0.42% respectively in the past week (20260126 - 20260201) [3]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.38% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201) [3]. - A - shares: The wind full A index changed by -1.59%. Different indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc. had different changes. From the sector style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chip stocks rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chip and growth stocks fell; the North Securities 50 Index fell by 3.59% [4][5]. Bond Market - China's treasury bonds: The 10 - year treasury bond futures contract rose by 0.11% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201). The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.86 BP to 1.8112%. The yields of 3 - to 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, while those of other maturities increased [6]. - U.S. treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year U.S. treasury bond changed by 2 BP to 4.26% as of January 30, 2026. The yields of 10 - year and above maturities increased, and the yield curve steepened [7]. Exchange Rate - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.40% in the past week (20260126 - 20260201). The exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen changed by -0.27%, -0.33%, and -0.68% respectively. The exchange rates against the on - shore and off - shore RMB were divergent [8][9]. Commodities - Gold: Gold prices tumbled on January 30, 2026. London gold spot prices rose by 0.72% to $4981.85 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices fell by 1.14% to $4879.60 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also rose [10]. Fed Policy - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Most members supported this decision, and only two members supported a 25 - BP interest - rate cut [11]. - The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by nearly $2.4 trillion since June 2022 until December 2025. If Kevin Warsh takes over as the Fed chairman, the interest - rate cut may exceed market expectations [12].