玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, and the market strengthens in the short term due to the sharp rise in energy costs and the possible shutdown of Dongtai Zhongbo's production line, the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is ending, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, showing a strengthening trend within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks opened upward, indicating a short - term slightly upward trend. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 30 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 764,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 1,452 lots. The intraday high was 1,120, the low was 1,085, and the closing price was 1,109, up 36 yuan/ton or 3.36% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1] - Spot Market: In North China, prices were stable, shipments were okay, and trading weakened; in East China, enterprises mostly kept prices stable, downstream demand was weak, and purchases were mainly for rigid needs; in Central China, the market was stable, middle and downstream buyers were rational, and the focus was on collecting payments; in South China, except for a few processing plants rushing to work, most downstream enterprises were on holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 89 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, the same as the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, the same as the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025) [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% week - on - week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - Import and Export: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - demand", and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the market rebound. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may run with a slight upward trend but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]