吉林碳谷（920077）：首次覆盖报告：稀缺原丝龙头，受益于风电需求回升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the carbon fiber precursor market, benefiting from a recovery in wind power demand. The profitability of precursor products is more stable than that of carbon fiber, and both production and sales are expected to rebound alongside the recovery in demand starting in 2025 [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 2,049 million in 2023, with a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year. It is expected to rise to 3,250 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to drop to 231 million in 2023, with a significant decline of 63.2%. However, it is expected to recover to 365 million by 2027, representing a growth of 26.6% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.39 in 2023 to 0.62 in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current price of the stock is 18.09, with a target price set at 21.53, indicating a potential upside [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 10,631 million, with a 52-week price range of 10.27 to 20.14 [6]. Industry Insights - The carbon fiber industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with the company expected to maintain profitability during this period. The domestic carbon fiber market is projected to stabilize in terms of pricing and profitability over the next two years [11]. - The demand for carbon fiber in the wind power sector is anticipated to drive sales growth, with a significant increase in installed capacity expected in 2026 [11][13]. Profit Forecasts - Carbon fiber precursor sales are expected to reach 100,000 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67%, driven by the recovery in the wind power market [13]. - The average price of carbon fiber precursor is projected to be 22,094 in 2025, with a slight decrease expected, but prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover in subsequent years [13][14].