山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals oscillated and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 7.29%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 11.22%, the main contract of platinum closed up 6.73%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.29%. The short - term safe - haven risk has increased due to geopolitical fluctuations. The new Fed Chairman is expected to be hawkish, the US employment is weak, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is nearing the end. Tensions in the Middle East have further escalated, and the nomination of a new Fed official has triggered hawkish expectations. The US PPI in December had the largest month - on - month increase in five months, indicating potential inflation acceleration. The market expects the Fed to complete interest rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded from lows. Regarding the commodity attribute, there is a risk of demand falsification for silver, platinum, and palladium. It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and maintaining a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4970.50 per ounce, up 6.19% from the previous day and down 4.04% from the previous week. The London gold price was $4920.95 per ounce, up 4.37% from the previous day and down 2.83% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1141.70 yuan per gram, up 4.38% from the previous day and down 3.75% from the previous week [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of Comex gold was 488,463 lots, down 7.39% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 178,544 lots, down 0.42% from the previous day and 19.75% from the previous week. The LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price Data: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $84.92 per ounce, up 7.13% from the previous day and down 24.42% from the previous week. The London silver price was $87.49 per ounce, up 6.73% from the previous day and down 21.58% from the previous week. The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 23,511 yuan per kilogram, up 9.63% from the previous day and down 19.54% from the previous week [4]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of Comex silver was 156,637 lots, up 3.04% from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 3,558,120 lots, up 4.80% from the previous day and down 18.24% from the previous week. The total visible inventory was 41,326 tons, down 0.14% from the previous day and 1.17% from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2212.50 per ounce, up 4.43% from the previous day and down 16.35% from the previous week. The London platinum price was $2247.00 per ounce, up 4.76% from the previous day and down 15.21% from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 599.85 yuan per gram, up 4.69% from the previous day and down 13.67% from the previous week [7]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 58,472 lots, down 4.83% from the previous day and 5.22% from the previous week. The NYMEX platinum inventory was 19 tons, down 9.01% from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [8]. - Price Data: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1745.00 per ounce, up 1.22% from the previous day and down 10.54% from the previous week. The London palladium price was $1817.00 per ounce, down 9.31% from the previous day and 8.23% from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 461.00 yuan per gram, up 2.32% from the previous day and down 8.53% from the previous week [9]. - Position and Inventory Data: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 14,843 lots, down 4.00% from the previous day and 14.29% from the previous week. The NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, down 6.95% from the previous week [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary Policy: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6638.091 billion, up 0.00% from the previous value [10]. - Inflation Data: The year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value. The year - on - year core CPI is 2.60%, unchanged from the previous value. The month - on - month core CPI is 0.00%, down 0.30% from the previous value [10]. - Economic Growth Data: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.40%, up 0.40% from the previous value. The annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 4.40%, up 0.60% from the previous value. The unemployment rate is 4.40%, down 0.10% from the previous value [10]. - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 95.55, down 55.24% from the previous value. The VIX index is 18.00, up 10.16% from the previous day and 10.09% from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 305.14, down 4.67% from the previous day and 3.92% from the previous week [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed's interest rate remaining in the range of 350 - 375 basis points in March 2026 is 91.1%. The probability distribution of interest rate ranges changes over different meeting dates in 2026 - 2027 [15].