每日核心期货品种分析-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On February 4, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals such as silver, gold, and copper showed significant increases, while some agricultural products and bonds declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand and market factors affecting their prices. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, production policies, and seasonal demand changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview: As of February 4, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals like silver, gold, platinum, and palladium had substantial gains, while some agricultural products like rapeseed meal and rapeseed declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, and bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts such as silver 2604 and gold 2604, and flowed out of contracts such as CSI 2603 [7][8]. Market Analysis - Copper (SHFE): Copper prices continued to rise due to news of improving the copper resource reserve system and the rebound of external precious metals. In January, the production of electrolytic copper increased year - on - year, and it is expected to decrease slightly in February. The demand was affected by high prices in January, but the long - term outlook for copper is positive [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate showed a narrow increase. The production rate was high, but the monthly output decreased. Some lithium mines were shut down for rectification, and the inventory continued to decline. The downstream demand was strong, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ members will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although the demand is in the off - season, the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global economy growth forecast was raised, and the demand concern was alleviated, but the supply is still in an oversupply situation [14]. - Asphalt: The asphalt production rate and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory rate remained low. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil was restricted, which affected production and cost. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and fluctuate, and it is recommended to take reverse arbitrage [16]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate was at a medium - low level, and the inventory was at a low level in recent years. Due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the rebound of crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [18]. - Plastic: The start - up rate of plastic decreased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [19]. - PVC: The start - up rate of PVC increased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export orders increased, but the social inventory was still high. It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the policy and market sentiment [21]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal rose. The production and import decreased marginally, and the inventory of mines decreased. The downstream winter storage was in the final stage, and the next round of coke price increase is expected to be difficult [24]. - Urea: The price of urea turned red at the end of the day. The production was higher than the same period in previous years, and the upstream factory's order - attracting pressure increased. The inventory decreased before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be weakly stable before the festival [25].