油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean reserves release and arrivals, it is not recommended to be overly bearish. It is conservatively advised to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market is still regarded as a wide - range shock [2]. - The US - India trade agreement is beneficial to US soybean oil exports, and the US 45Z proposed rule provides psychological support to producers. The oil and fat sector is in a relatively strong shock pattern with limited downside space but weak upward drive in the short term [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - In December 2026, the US soybean crushing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly crushing volume, second only to October 2025 [1]. - As of January 31, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean was 11.4%, higher than 6.6% a week ago, 8.0% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 11.8%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 33.2%, compared with 14.7% last year and a five - year average of 29.3%. The harvest progress in Paraná was 5%, compared with 18% last year and a five - year average of 10.8% [1]. Oils and Fats - The US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule to regulate how biofuel producers obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels. However, some issues in the regulation remain unanswered [2]. - US President Trump announced a major trade agreement with India, which allows US agricultural products to enter the Indian market. The soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose in response. India agreed to purchase more than $500 billion of US products, including agricultural products [2].