甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is waiting for the inflection point of inventory. In the intraday, it shows a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the 60-day moving average at the hourly level for support. In the medium term, focus on the realization of continuous inventory reduction, and appropriately consider low-buying opportunities after over - decline, while also paying close attention to recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4721 billion tons, an increase of 14,600 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 47,600 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 33,000 tons. The inventory accumulation in ports this week was mainly in East China, with 191,400 tons of foreign vessels unloaded in the cycle, all in East China. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the提货 in the mainstream storage areas weakened. Due to the lack of foreign vessel supply, the inventory decreased, and there was no unloading in Fujian, so the inventory also decreased. [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - US President Trump stated that the share of Venezuela in oil profits has not been discussed, and India is about to intervene and buy Venezuelan oil. Trump's statement over the weekend that Iran is having "serious talks" with Washington, signaling a cooling of the situation with the OPEC member, led to a sharp drop in WTI crude oil. The Ministry of Commerce and 8 other units issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan". [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market shows a slight intraday fluctuation. Pay attention to the 60 - day moving average at the hourly level for support. In the medium term, focus on the realization of continuous inventory reduction, and appropriately consider low - buying opportunities after over - decline, while also paying close attention to recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes. [3]