沪铜日报：延续上涨-20260204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The copper price continued to rise due to news - related stimuli and the rebound of non - ferrous and precious metals. The news of copper resource reserve announced the previous day brought long - term benefits to copper. After market sentiment stabilizes, copper will remain strong at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3%. The news that China will improve the copper resource reserve system and the halt of some copper smelting projects, along with the rebound of external precious metals, stimulated the copper price to rise. In terms of fundamentals, the electrolytic copper output in January was 1179300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. The output in February is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market was affected by purchase tax [1]. - The Chilean National Copper Commission Cochilco raised the 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the average copper price to reach $4.95 per pound [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3% [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 180 yuan/ton. On February 3, 2026, the LME official price was $13360/ton, and the spot premium was - 65 dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 159800 tons, an increase of 751 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90300 tons, a decrease of 8600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 176100 tons, an increase of 1450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 582300 short tons, an increase of 2050 short tons from the previous period [13].