PP日报：震荡上行-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and the spot price followed up limited at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the upstream petrochemical inventory is low, the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment of bulk commodities has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the concentrated demand for plastic film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1行情分析 - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the US has reduced tariffs on India, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6727 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6824 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6801 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,151 lots to 521,043 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable. The drawstring was reported at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons week - on - week, 6 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5]