原油日报：原油震荡上行-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near term due to factors such as the OPEC+ production plan, US inventory changes, economic growth forecasts, geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the current cold snap [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1]. - Despite the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [1][3]. - The International Monetary Fund raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points last week, and cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns [1]. - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. The EIA's latest January report raised the surplus margin for 2026 [1]. - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical risks in Iran remain highly uncertain. Although there were signs of negotiation, there were also recent military - related incidents such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and reports of Iranian armed boats trying to stop a US - flagged oil tanker [1]. - The next round of Ukraine - issue negotiations will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4th to 5th [1]. - The US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% immediately. India may increase crude oil purchases from the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East [1]. - The power supply system of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been safely restarted, and the repair of the CPC 3rd offshore mooring terminal has been completed. However, the operator said that only half of the oilfield's production capacity can be restored by February 7th [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 2.80% to 462.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 451.7 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 466.7 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume decreased by 5245 to 27679 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - According to EIA data on January 28th, for the week ending January 23rd in the US, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels), heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of January 23rd decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4]. - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4]. - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].