塑料日报：震荡上行-20260204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. Although the upstream petrochemical inventory is low and the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity production and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4th, the addition of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE led to a decline in the plastics operating rate to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders for agricultural films and raw material inventory decreased slightly, and packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacities were put into production in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute, and the plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,811 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,937 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.64%. The open interest increased by 17,366 lots to 529,051 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 4th, the plastics operating rate dropped to around 91% due to new maintenance devices, and it is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points week - on - week to 37.76%, and it is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 50 tons, 6 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 680 US dollars/ton [4].