2025年收费收益权ABS市场回顾与展望：发行单数增长、规模收缩、结构持续优化、创新多点突破

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints In 2025, driven by multiple policy orientations and market demands such as local government debt resolution, state - owned asset revitalization, and green finance development, the toll revenue right ABS market showed characteristics of "increasing number of issuances, shrinking scale, continuous structural optimization, and multi - point breakthroughs in innovation". The inter - bank market was the core issuance channel, and subsidy income, shantytown renovation/affordable housing, and livelihood public utility assets dominated the market. The pattern of high - rating and high - priority ratios was further consolidated, and specific labels and first - of - its - kind products were the highlights of innovation [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Primary Market Operation - Issuance Overview: - The number of issuances increased to 89, while the issuance scale was 87.242 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62%. The number of issuances increased due to the policy of "exchanging stock for increment" and the need to include more small - scale operating assets in securitization. The scale decreased because of stricter debt control, higher compliance requirements, and reduced high - quality assets. The market is shifting towards "structural optimization and refined operation" [5]. - The inter - bank market and the Shanghai Stock Exchange were the main issuance and trading venues, with the inter - bank market accounting for 54.02% of the issuance scale. ABCP's issuance scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the uncertainty of subsidy funds and cash flows and the substitution effect of other financing channels [7]. - The structure of underlying assets was diversified, with subsidy income assets accounting for the highest proportion of 42.06%. The issuance scale of subsidy income, highway bridges, and gas supply assets declined, while that of livelihood public utility and shantytown renovation/affordable housing assets increased. Investor preference shifted to "small - volume, strong - credit - enhancement" projects [10]. - The concentration of leading institutions increased. The top 3, 5, and 10 originators accounted for 38.83%, 46.04%, and 56.57% of the issuance scale respectively. This was due to the regulatory environment and the advantages of large - scale central and local state - owned enterprises [14]. - AAAsf - rated products dominated the market, with a scale of 81.954 billion yuan, accounting for 93.94%. The average proportion of priority securities was 95.45%, which met the needs of both supply and demand sides [17]. - There were rich and diverse specific labels. "Green" was the mainstream single - label, and combined labels such as "green + carbon neutrality" became highlights, helping issuers access policy benefits [19]. - Five first - of - its - kind products were issued, focusing on new types of underlying assets such as raw water supply, public rental housing operation and maintenance fees, and industrial steam. These products achieved lower financing costs and reflected the continuous release of market innovation momentum [22]. - Interest Rate Analysis: - Fixed - rate products accounted for 63.89% of the issuance scale, and progressive - rate products accounted for 36.11%, indicating the market's ability to adapt to different asset characteristics and investment preferences [24]. - The issuance interest rate range was stable, between 1.47% and 3.53%, with an average of about 2.33%. The issuance spread was mainly concentrated in the (50, 100]bp range, narrowing slightly compared with 2024, reflecting market recognition of high - rating products [25][29]. - Performance of Outstanding Securities: - The number and scale of outstanding securities increased. As of the end of 2025, there were 438 outstanding products, and the market expanded steadily [31]. - The credit performance during the outstanding period was stable, with no records of extension, rating upgrade, or downgrade, indicating controllable credit risks [32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - Increased Trading Volume and Number of Transactions: In 2025, the secondary - market trading volume of toll revenue right asset - backed securitization products was 10.0119 billion yuan, with 214 transactions, increasing by 15.02% and 22.29% year - on - year respectively. The active secondary - market performance was related to the increase in primary - market supply and stable credit performance [34]. - Trading Structure Closely Linked to the Primary Market: - Shantytown renovation/affordable housing and subsidy income products led the trading. The number of shantytown renovation/affordable housing ABS transactions was 44, ranking first, and the trading volumes of subsidy income and shantytown renovation/affordable housing ABS were 26.178 billion yuan and 22.532 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 48.66% in total [36]. - Products with a term of 5 - 10 years accounted for the highest proportion, with a trading volume of 34.115 billion yuan, accounting for 34.07%. Products within 1 year (including 1 year) accounted for 26.85% [38]. - Exchange - traded ABS was the main trading product, with 165 transactions and a trading volume of 67.441 billion yuan, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was the core trading venue, with a trading volume of 53.731 billion yuan, accounting for 53.67% [40]. - High - Rating Priority - Tier Products Dominated the Trading: In 2025, the trading volumes of priority - tier, mezzanine - tier, and sub - tier securities accounted for 97.34%, 2.30%, and 0.36% respectively. The A1 - tier trading volume was 65.521 billion yuan, accounting for 65.44%. AAAsf - rated securities accounted for more than 90% of the trading volume [42][44]. - Products with Short Transaction Days Had Better Liquidity: Products with transaction days within 10 days had a trading volume of 64.922 billion yuan, accounting for 64.84%, and mainly included subsidy income ABS. Products with transaction days exceeding 40 days were all AAAsf - rated heating and shantytown renovation/affordable housing projects, showing a "low - liquidity + high - credit" liquidity premium [46]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Core Driving Factors in 2025: - Policy Orientation: Policies supported debt resolution and asset revitalization through asset securitization, focusing on areas such as urban renewal, municipal utilities, and affordable housing, and strengthening the management of government subsidy assets. The release of relevant regulations provided a compliance basis and institutional guarantee for the market [47]. - Asset Innovation: First - of - its - kind products broke through the traditional boundaries of underlying assets, such as raw water supply, public rental housing operation and maintenance fees, and industrial steam. These products met policy requirements and were favored by institutional investors, with some achieving record - low interest rates [50]. - Future Market Outlook: - The market scale is expected to expand steadily, and policy - supported areas such as urban renewal, affordable rental housing, and new - energy subsidies may become the main growth points [51]. - Product structure and label innovation will be deepened. Progressive interest rates and credit enhancement measures will be more widely used, and combined label products will increase, helping issuers reduce financing costs [52]. - Data asset empowerment will open up new growth opportunities. The successful issuance of the first data - asset - empowered toll revenue right ABS in 2025 marked the beginning of the integration of data elements and traditional toll revenue rights. In the future, it may extend to new fields, providing long - term growth momentum for the market [53].