Soochow Securities·2026-02-04 12:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The company’s leverage ratio is projected to increase slightly before the conversion of the bonds but is expected to decrease post-conversion, indicating a manageable impact on overall leverage [8] - The financing is anticipated to bolster the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with plans to expand into mature and emerging markets [8] - The regulatory environment is supportive of domestic brokers expanding overseas, which aligns with the company's strategic goals [8] - The long-term outlook for the securities industry remains positive, driven by capital market reforms and a recovering macroeconomic environment, which is expected to enhance market investment enthusiasm [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 42.34 billion yuan by 2027, with a notable decline in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant increase in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 2.32 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [1]