美国生物柴油45Z政策拟议法规公布，美豆油上涨

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the proposed regulations of the US biodiesel 45Z policy and the rise of US soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: Fuel Production and Policy Details Fuel Use and Sales - The policy aims to flex sales paths and reduce trading restrictions [6] Credit Amount and Calculation Rules - Maintain 50 kg CO₂e/mmBTU and adjust the calculation scope. The IRS releases an annual emission rate table to dynamically adjust emission factors [8] - Cancel the SAF premium, unify the credit amount for SAF and non - SAF. Adjust the credit amount by the inflation adjustment factor [8] Eligibility and Credit Rates - Suitable for road vehicles and aviation. Broaden the rules for affiliated intermediary sales [9] - Basic credit rate (not meeting wage/apprentice requirements): 20 cents/gallon for SAF and non - SAF from January 1, 2026 [10] - Upgraded credit rate (meeting wage/apprentice requirements): $1.00/gallon for SAF and non - SAF from January 1, 2026 [10] - Credit amount is adjusted by the inflation adjustment factor. The actual credit = credit amount × fuel emission factor (lower emissions, higher credit) [10] Fuel Emission Factor Calculation - Exclude indirect land use change (ILUC). Use specific emission rates for animal manure - derived fuels [10] Group 3: US Raw Material Demand and Import 2024 Import Data - Total raw material usage for biodiesel and renewable diesel is 17260000 tons. Vegetable oil usage is 10200000 tons, and animal fat usage is 7060000 tons [16] - For soybean oil, 6040000 tons are used, with 3360000 tons for biodiesel and 2690000 tons for renewable diesel. Import sources include Canada and Mexico [16] 2025 (January - November) Import Data - Total raw material usage for biodiesel and renewable diesel is 12370000 tons. Vegetable oil usage is 6790000 tons, and animal fat usage is 5580000 tons [17] - For soybean oil, 4160000 tons are used, with 2420000 tons for biodiesel and 1740000 tons for renewable diesel. Import sources mainly include Canada and Mexico [17] Group 4: Impact Assessment - US - Canada - Mexico UCO can get a 0.6 - cent/lb subsidy. Non - US - Canada - Mexico UCO needs to be about 7 cents/lb (154 dollars/ton) cheaper to offset the subsidy difference [21] - US - Canada - Mexico soybean oil can get a 0.5 - cent/lb subsidy. Non - US - Canada - Mexico soybean oil needs to be about 6 - 7 cents/lb (132 - 154 dollars/ton) cheaper to offset the subsidy difference [21] - Due to the expansion of sustainable aviation fuel in overseas markets, it's expected that non - US - Canada - Mexico raw materials may not have an independent weak market [21]