化工日报-20260204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings are provided for various chemicals, with each chemical having a corresponding star rating. Red stars represent a predicted upward trend, green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star indicates a bullish or bearish bias with limited trading opportunities, two stars suggest a clear upward or downward trend with the market moving, and three stars represent a more distinct trend with appropriate investment opportunities. White stars indicate a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] 2. Core View - The market trends of different chemicals vary. Some are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory. For example, some chemicals show upward trends due to demand recovery or cost support, while others face downward pressure due to over - supply or weak demand [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures rose during the day. Supply increase was limited, inventory was controllable, and downstream demand rebounded, pushing up the trading center. The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures were weakly sorted. For polyethylene, there was no short - term supply pressure, but downstream trading was dull. For polypropylene, cost support recovered, but downstream orders were near the end, and the market was in shock [2] 3.2 Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded due to oil price boost. PX had new capacity in the second half of the year while PTA had none, so it was recommended to be long in the first half. However, current demand declined and there was an inventory build - up expectation around the Spring Festival. PTA processing margin was repaired, and a plant restart increased inventory pressure. For glycol, port inventory continued to increase, but there were expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery in the second quarter. Short - fiber had a good supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders. Bottle - chip processing margin was repaired, and mid - term inventory performance after the Spring Festival should be focused on [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The cost of pure benzene rebounded, driving up the futures price. Downstream pre - holiday stocking reduced port inventory, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to increase. However, the fundamentals were expected to weaken as supply increased. The main contract of styrene futures rose, with cost support from oil price increase and supply uncertainties after the Spring Festival [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The price of methanol futures rose. Port inventory decreased, but coastal demand was weak. Domestic production increased, and inventory was transferred downstream. Urea prices in central China slightly declined. Production increased, and there was a small inventory reduction. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a strong trend. Factory inventory decreased, and export was good. With cost support, it was expected to fluctuate strongly. Caustic soda fluctuated. Chlorine price was strong, but inventory was high, and the fundamentals were weak [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. Inventory increased, and there was a supply - demand surplus in the long - term. Glass was strongly affected by supply news. Inventory slightly decreased, but there was an inventory build - up pressure during the Spring Festival. It was expected to fluctuate strongly [8]