有色金属日报-20260204

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ [1] - Alumina: なな☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] Core Views - The U.S. $12 billion strategic metal stockpiling plan and the non-ferrous metals industry association's suggestion of commercial interest - subsidized stockpiling of copper and copper concentrates have led to rapid re - allocation in the copper market after the shock [1]. - The short - term macro sentiment for aluminum is fluctuating, the fundamentals are weak, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The supply of zinc is expected to decline in February, and it is in a state of weak supply and demand with seasonal inventory pressure during the Spring Festival, but the cost support is strong [2]. - The inclusion of recycled aluminum in delivery has led to a decline in Shanghai aluminum. The demand for aluminum ingots is insufficient, but there is strong support at the 16,600 yuan/ton level [3]. - The downstream of stainless steel is cautious in purchasing, and the market sentiment is panicked [5]. - The impact of the Myanmar earthquake on tin supply is expected to be limited, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been raised [6]. - The price of lithium carbonate is in high - level shock with high short - term uncertainty [6]. - The price of polysilicon continues to rise, with cost support and a de - stocking expectation in February [6]. - The output of industrial silicon has declined significantly in February, and there is a slight de - stocking expectation, with a weak short - term sentiment [7]. Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper increased positions at the end of the session and continued the upward trend. The U.S. strategic metal stockpiling plan and the industry association's suggestion of commercial interest - subsidized stockpiling attracted rapid re - allocation in the copper market. Short - term attention should be paid to the previous platform of 105,000 yuan, and the enthusiasm of mid - and downstream price - setting may weaken again. Attention should be paid to inter - period reverse arbitrage [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 210 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 195 yuan respectively, and the aluminum rod processing fee was negative. The short - term macro sentiment is fluctuating, the fundamentals are weak, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The inclusion of recycled aluminum in delivery has led to a decline in Shanghai aluminum, and there is strong support at the 16,600 yuan/ton level [2][3]. Zinc - As Shanghai zinc fell from a high level, the short - selling sentiment in the market was released to some extent, but the capital congestion was still high, and the long - short game at high levels is expected to continue. The downstream consumption is weak, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to decline by 50,000 tons in February. It is in a state of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory pressure during the Spring Festival. However, the TC in the first quarter is at a low level, and the cost support is strong. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai lead had a weak rebound, and the market trading was active. The downstream of stainless steel was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transactions were weak. The inventory of steel mills was still at a low level, and the spot price was supported to run strongly. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin decreased positions and fluctuated during the day. The impact of the Myanmar earthquake on tin supply is expected to be limited. The domestic tin concentrate processing fee has been raised. After the option strategy is settled, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and fluctuated. The exchange policy affected market participation. The high - level price of lithium carbonate may have led to the liquidation of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot and long - position speculative positions are dominant, and the position structure is fragile. The overall de - stocking speed of the market has slowed down, and the lithium carbonate futures price is in high - level shock with high short - term uncertainty [6]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon continued to rise. The industry has an expectation of cost increase, which will form support for the price. Affected by the production cuts of leading enterprises, the output of polysilicon in February is expected to be revised down to less than 80,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of more than 20,000 tons. There is a de - stocking expectation in February. The cost of auxiliary materials has fluctuated, and the downstream production increase rhythm of photovoltaics is expected to be relatively cautious. The spot price of N - type re -投料 is stable at 53,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the spot transaction price [6]. Industrial Silicon - In February, the production cuts of leading enterprises in Xinjiang were implemented, and combined with the production reduction in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan in January, the output of industrial silicon in February decreased significantly month - on - month. The downstream demand weakened as a whole. There is a slight de - stocking expectation in February. The previous 9,000 yuan/ton level on the disk was under pressure, and the short - term sentiment was weak. It is expected to maintain a shock, and attention should be paid to the change of inventory data tomorrow [7].