2.0%的科创债怎么看?
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2026-02-04 14:33
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (KeChuang bonds) has been continuously active. Although the overall demand for KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds. The performance of KeChuang bonds is expected to be mainly volatile before the holiday. For accounts with unstable liability ends, it is recommended to give priority to high - quality KeChuang bonds within 3 years as investment targets [2][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2.0% of KeChuang Bonds: How to View 3.1.1 Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The primary market has continued the strong supply trend since the beginning of the year. The new supply scale in the week from January 26 to January 30, 2026, reached 58.96 billion yuan, with the issuance of over - 5 - year varieties in the inter - bank market increasing significantly. The overall demand for new KeChuang bonds has continued to recover, but the subscription enthusiasm is still lower than that of non - KeChuang credit bonds, indicating limited willingness of investors to pay a premium for the "science and technology innovation label" [2][11] 3.1.2 Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - Rating distribution: The ratings of outstanding KeChuang bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 73.7%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 22.0%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities [3][19] - Industry distribution: The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries. Bonds in the building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive industries account for 38.9%. There is an excess spread of over 13bp in the textile and apparel, communication, and non - bank financial industries compared to all credit bonds in the same industries [3][19] - Liquidity: In the past two weeks, the weekly trading volume of KeChuang bonds has returned to over a thousand transactions, and the turnover rate in the latest week has risen to 2.17%, higher than that of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [3][26] - Yield: Due to the marginal slowdown of the net outflow pressure of KeChuang bond ETF funds and the warming of the bond market sentiment, the market of KeChuang bonds has been supported. This week, high - grade medium - and short - term KeChuang bonds have performed well. The average yields of 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year exchange - listed AAA KeChuang bonds have decreased by 6.3bp and 7.5bp respectively [3][31] - Internal price comparison of KeChuang bond varieties: Recently, the spread between the constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds of the KeChuang bond index has remained above 20bp, and the spread between inter - bank varieties and constituent bonds has widened to 10.1bp. For the 1 - 3 - year segment, there is still 18bp of compression space between inter - bank varieties and index constituent bonds [3][35]