高市早苗的“乘胜追击”：日本众议院选举前瞻

Group 1: Election Overview - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on January 19, with elections scheduled for February 8, aiming to convert her high approval ratings into control for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [3] - The House of Representatives consists of 465 seats, all of which will be contested in the upcoming election, using a mixed electoral system of single-member districts and proportional representation [4] - Polls indicate that the LDP is likely to secure more than half of the seats, despite a recent decline in Takashi's personal approval ratings, which remain around 59% [5] Group 2: Polling Insights - Current polls show the LDP at 35.9%, followed by other parties with significantly lower support, indicating a strong position for the LDP [26] - Concerns over rising prices, particularly food costs, are the primary voter issues, with 41% prioritizing measures to address inflation [55] - The election outcome is considered highly unpredictable, with factors such as the youth vote and historical turnout rates influencing potential results [5] Group 3: Market Implications - A significant LDP victory would likely lead to smoother implementation of policies such as tax cuts and increased defense spending, positively impacting domestic consumption and infrastructure sectors [6] - If the LDP fails to secure a majority but remains in coalition, market reactions will be more tempered, reflecting a shift from aggressive expansion to moderate policy advancement [6] - The potential for increased government debt due to fiscal expansion could pressure long-term interest rates and weaken the yen [6]