Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant surge in demand for ASML's products, with Q4 orders exceeding expectations and a positive revenue guidance for 2026, driven by increased EUV capacity and a favorable pricing environment for lithography machines [3][11] - The company is expected to benefit from a long-term trend of increasing lithography intensity, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure investments [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ASML are adjusted as follows: FY2026E at €37.126 billion, FY2027E at €45.428 billion, and FY2028E at €46.648 billion, reflecting growth rates of 13.6%, 22.4%, and 2.7% respectively [5][11] - GAAP net profit estimates have been revised to €11.207 billion for FY2026E, €14.707 billion for FY2027E, and €15.383 billion for FY2028E, indicating growth rates of 16.6%, 31.2%, and 4.6% respectively [5][11] - The projected PE ratio for FY2027 is set at 38x, leading to a target price of $1675 for ASML shares [11][12] Order and Revenue Insights - In Q4, ASML reported revenue of €9.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with equipment sales contributing €7.6 billion, including 14 EUV and 37 ArFi systems [11] - New orders reached €13.158 billion in Q4, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 85.6%, with 56% of orders from memory customers and 44% from foundry customers [11] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand from data centers and AI-related infrastructure is driving simultaneous growth in both foundry and memory sectors, leading to increased demand for advanced logic and DRAM capacity [11] - Price adjustments in the downstream market, such as a 15% increase in AWS EC2 machine learning capacity, are expected to provide ASML and other upstream equipment manufacturers with room for price increases [11]
阿斯麦（ASML）：FY25Q4 业绩点评：下游需求高景气，光刻强度长期提升趋势明确
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-05 00:25