Guoxin Securities·2026-02-05 00:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].