宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年2月5日）-20260205

Report Summary - Report Date: February 5, 2026 - Report Source: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Performance: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the reference view is also strong. [5][6] - Core Logic: The sentiment in the US soybean market has improved, leading to a strong rebound in futures prices. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak. After the pre - holiday stocking by downstream users, the demand for soybean meal has declined, resulting in inventory accumulation. The high operating rate of oil mills has alleviated the expected shortage of soybean supply. The losses in the livestock farming sector further suppress the demand for soybean meal. At the end of the stocking period, terminal transactions have decreased, and the spot market is weak. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased, and the oil mills' production has been steadily increasing, so the supply pressure remains high. The short - term price of soybean meal will rebound following the US soybean futures prices, but the rebound amplitude will be restricted by domestic industrial chain pressure. [5] Palm Oil (P) - Price Performance: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6][7] - Core Logic: The core driver of the oil market comes from the proposed 45Z biofuel tax credit rule issued by the US Treasury Department, which allows the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials, marginally benefiting the consumption of US soybean oil and strengthening the market's optimistic expectations for biofuel policies. Coupled with the increase in international oil prices due to geopolitical situations, the overnight CBOT soybean oil futures rose strongly, driving the overall domestic oil market higher. However, domestic fundamentals restrict the upward movement. Palm oil is supported by the expected improvement in Malaysia's supply - demand situation in January, but the high domestic inventory and light spot trading limit its upward space. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, with futures prices moderately strong. [7] Soybean Oil - Price Performance: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6] - Core Logic: It is supported by the cost of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. [6]