五矿期货能源化工日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. - For urea, the current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. - For rubber, the overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. - For PVC, the overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. - For polypropylene, the cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. - For PTA, the supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, the import is expected to remain high in February, and the port inventory - accumulating cycle will continue. The valuation is currently neutral to low, and there is a risk of rebound due to factors such as the tense situation in Iran and coal price rebound [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures closed up 12.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.80% increase, at 462.40 yuan/barrel. The related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.98% increase, at 2797.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 107.00 yuan/ton, a 3.39% increase, at 3268.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still an Iranian supply gap, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and mid - term layout should be the main operation idea [1]. Methanol - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton, Lunan increased by 5 yuan/ton, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei increased by 55 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 23.00 yuan/ton, at 2279 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 6 yuan [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Methanol has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [1]. Urea - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, regional spot prices: Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 17 yuan/ton, at 1787 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current situation of internal and external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is recommended to short at high levels [1]. Rubber - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, multiple commodities rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term market is priced by funds and has a low correlation with fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls are optimistic due to macro - expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 29, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises for all - steel tires was 62.41%, 0.29 percentage points lower than the previous week and 54.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.35%, 0.08 percentage points higher than the previous week and 53.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 25, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.2 million tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 84.7 million tons, a 0.4% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 42.5 million tons, a 0.3% increase. As of January 30, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15150 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1930 (+15) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1920 (10) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10400 (+50) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12400 (0) yuan [4][5][6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overall commodity has rebounded, with expected large - amplitude fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. Buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 can resume position - building [7]. PVC - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 84 yuan, at 5155 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4900 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 255 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 99 (+13) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 700 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 590 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.9%, a 0.2% increase from the previous week; the calcium carbide method was 80.6%, a 0.6% increase; the ethylene method was 75%, a 0.7% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 29 million tons (- 1.8), and the social inventory was 120.6 million tons (+2.9) [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The overall domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support it, the fundamental situation is poor. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7777 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan/ton; the basis was 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 185.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.63 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 46.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.1 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.28%, a 0.35% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, an increase of 0.80 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.56%, a 1.84% decrease; the PS operating rate was 55.60%, a 1.70% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 53.26%, a 5.45% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 66.10%, a 0.70% decrease [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply is wide, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profit - taking can be gradually carried out [14]. Polyethylene - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6918 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward valuation space still exists. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate is declining [17]. Polypropylene - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6801 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6780 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a decrease of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost side predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply pressure in H1 2026 is relieved. The demand side has seasonal fluctuations. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [19]. PX - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 100 yuan, at 7180 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 5 US dollars, at 902 US dollars. The basis was - 67 yuan (- 58), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. The Zhonghua Quanzhou plant was restarting. The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 million tons of PX to China, a decrease of 2.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 313 US dollars (+3), the South Korean PX - MX was 150 US dollars (- 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (- 8) [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current PX load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulating pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [21]. PTA - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 68 yuan, at 5218 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 60 yuan, at 5140 yuan. The basis was - 62 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (+8). The PTA load was 76.6%, unchanged. The Sichuan Energy Investment plant was restarting. The downstream load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Multiple plants were under maintenance or restarting. The terminal texturing load decreased by 14% to 52%, and the loom load decreased by 16% to 33%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 million tons, an increase of 3.3 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 39 yuan, to 398 yuan, and the on - screen processing fee increased by 9 yuan, to 432 yuan [22]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply side has high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side is affected by the off - season. It has entered the inventory - accumulating stage during the Spring Festival. The processing fee has increased significantly, and there is a risk of correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long at low levels [23]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: On February 5, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 21 yuan, at 3788 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan, at 3675 yuan. The basis was - 105 yuan (-