地缘风险反复，铂钯延续上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish due to geopolitical risks and positive macro - expectations [1]. - Palladium is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by tariff expectations and tight spot supply [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, both platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish [2][3]. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan/gram, with a 6.73% increase [1]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone on February 4, 2026, have boosted market risk - aversion and led to a rebound in platinum prices. The expectation of new sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals and US tariffs on platinum and palladium also support the short - term bullish trend [1]. - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand for jewelry and investment. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [1]. Palladium - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 461 yuan/gram, with a 6.29% increase [1]. - After a significant short - term correction, the overheating risk of palladium has been released. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, tight spot supply, US tariff increases, and sanctions on Russia support the price bottom. The Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle also has a positive impact on palladium prices [3]. Commodity Index - On February 4, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index includes the following: the commodity index was 2421.45, up 1.99%; the commodity 20 index was 2772.98, up 2.43%; the industrial products index was 2322.73, up 1.42% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 4, 2026, was 2739.40, with a daily increase of 2.28%, a 5 - day decrease of 8.01%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.99% [51]. - The PPI commodity index was 1434.67, up 1.75% [51].