海外市场供应担忧凸显，能源品强势?撑化?价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas market supply concerns are prominent, and the strength of energy products supports chemical prices. The Indonesian government's proposed production - cut plan has led to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners, with the production quota for major miners last month down 40% - 70% from 2025, causing coal prices to rise. European natural gas inventories are at a low level, and crude oil prices were affected by concerns over the possible cancellation of US - Iran negotiations. Overall, overseas factors have supported the chemical industry [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of geopolitical premium fluctuations with inventory pressure and oversupply. Strong expectations support pure benzene and styrene. PVC may show a pattern of rising first and then falling, with an overall oscillatory trend [3]. - The outlook for the chemical industry is to be treated with an oscillatory mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - Market News: On the week of January 30, US gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels. The refinery capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. US - Iran nuclear negotiations are scheduled for Friday in Oman [8]. - Main Logic: US crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cold wave's impact was evident. Geopolitical situations continuously disrupt oil prices. The geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to fluctuate due to factors from Russia and Iran. - Outlook: Oscillatory. The fundamentals are in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical situations may cause frequent potential disruptions to supply expectations, and the geopolitical premium may still fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The disturbance of asphalt raw material supply is expected to ease. - Main Logic: Trump's dialogue with Iran and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will lead to an abundant supply of asphalt raw materials in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The fuel oil futures price follows the upward trend of crude oil. - Main Logic: US assistance to Venezuela's oil production may lead to a surge in heavy - oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation affect fuel oil export expectations and may lead to an increase in fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor [10]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by natural gas price fluctuations. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low [11]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. Although it is affected by negative factors, its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - View: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. - Main Logic: International oil prices are oscillating, and the commodity market is slightly warming up. After a significant adjustment, the PX price has stabilized. The high - supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the market has a consistent positive expectation [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars/ton [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - View: Strong expectations but weak reality, the price will be consolidated within a range. - Main Logic: The commodity atmosphere has warmed up, and PTA has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current supply - demand pattern is weak and the seasonal inventory accumulation is large, the market has strong long - term expectations [13]. - Outlook: It is expected to be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 spread and the support level of around 5,100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - View: Weak reality but there are still expectations of improvement, and it will be oscillatory and bullish. - Main Logic: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene, with a low valuation, has become a choice for capital. Although the current inventory pressure is large, there are expectations of inventory reduction during the spring inspection [14][16]. - Outlook: Oscillatory and bullish. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and there are expectations of inventory reduction in the far - month [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - View: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. - Main Logic: The price of styrene is oscillatory and bullish. Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and frequent overseas disturbances [18]. - Outlook: Oscillatory and bullish. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be reduced, and it will return to the inventory - reduction trend in March, being easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - View: There are many near - end arrivals, and the price is under pressure. - Main Logic: The commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up, and the decline of ethylene glycol prices has slowed down. The fundamentals are weak, with a larger seasonal inventory accumulation than in previous years, and the supply pressure restricts the upward price elasticity [20][23]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price will be consolidated within a range. The EG05 contract can be operated within the range of [3,700 - 4,050] yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the EG05 - 09 spread within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. - Main Logic: The commodity sentiment has warmed up, and upstream polyester raw materials have risen slightly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production cuts and shutdowns have increased, and the demand is weak [25][26]. - Outlook: The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream products, and the support for processing fees is increasing [26]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - View: The inventory structure is optimized, and the profitability of bottle chips remains strong. - Main Logic: Upstream polyester raw material prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and the commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up. The supply has decreased, and the inventory structure has been optimized, resulting in strong profits for polyester factories [27][28]. - Outlook: The absolute price follows the movement of raw materials, and the support for processing fees is increasing. Attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA positions [28]. 3.1.12 Methanol - View: The port inventory has returned to the de - stocking stage, and overseas situations have occasional fluctuations. Methanol will be oscillatory within a range. - Main Logic: The methanol price was oscillatory and bullish on February 4, 2026. The inland market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [29][30]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and is oscillatory and slightly bearish, but the improvement of MTO profits may provide some support [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - View: The order receipt has improved, and the sentiment has warmed up. Urea will be oscillatory and consolidated. - Main Logic: On February 4, 2026, the supply of urea was sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector was for pre - Spring Festival fertilization, while industrial demand decreased. The inventory continued to decline, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [31]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a game between production enterprises and downstream buyers, and the market is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - View: After a small decline in maintenance, the price of plastic will be oscillatory after a fall. - Main Logic: On February 4, the plastic futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitical situations, the overall commodity sentiment was weak, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the demand was in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [34]. - Outlook: Oscillatory in the short term [34]. 3.1.15 PP - View: Downstream sentiment is cautious before the Spring Festival, and PP will be oscillatory after a fall. - Main Logic: On February 4, the PP futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitics, the commodity market sentiment declined, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the downstream is in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [35]. - Outlook: Oscillatory in the short term [35]. 3.1.16 PL - View: The spot pressure is not large, and PL will be oscillatory. - Main Logic: On February 4, the PL futures price was oscillatory. PDH maintenance provided some support, the supply increase was limited, the inventory was controllable, and the downstream demand was in the off - season [36]. - Outlook: Oscillatory in the short term [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - View: The coal import disturbance makes the PVC rebound cautious. - Main Logic: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, short - term "export rush" supports demand, and inventory has decreased. However, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and the cost has increased due to coal price expectations [37]. - Outlook: In the short term, factors such as "export rush", domestic supply - side policy expectations, and coal import disturbances boost PVC sentiment, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, with an overall oscillatory trend [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - View: The demand has improved temporarily, and caustic soda should be observed for the time being. - Main Logic: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, downstream buyers have purchased at low prices before the Spring Festival, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upstream production is still at a high level [37]. - Outlook: Oscillatory. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment by downstream buyers has relieved the upstream inventory pressure, but the upstream production is still high, so caustic soda should be observed for the time being [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Cross - Period Spreads: The report provides cross - period spreads for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including data on the latest values and changes [39]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: It presents cross - variety spreads for different periods of multiple varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the original text for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, along with their latest values, change percentages, and historical price trends [284][286].