格林期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp drop in the precious metals market was triggered by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair, but the real cause was the large number of profit - taking positions after the previous continuous rally. The selling in the precious metals market may not last due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. Gold and silver prices are likely to stay above the historical average, and currently, they have not formed a new trend. Investors should control positions and prevent risks in the short - term volatile market [1][2] 3. Summary of Key Points by Directory 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.04% to $4986.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.36% to $87.77 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1113.78 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of February 4, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.43 tons to 1081.95 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 67.65 tons to 16370.05 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 9.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 90.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 23.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 46.0% [1] - The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the estimated 45,000 and the previous value of 41,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The US ISM services PMI in January remained at 53.8, higher than the expected 53.5, showing strong performance and persistent inflation pressure [1] - Iran's foreign minister confirmed that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations will be held in Oman on Friday [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair was the trigger for the precious metals market crash. The real reason was the large number of profit - taking positions after the previous continuous rally, which led to a chain reaction and a market stampede. Margin trading in the futures market also contributed to the situation, and hedging operations by option institutions may have boosted the selling. However, due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, the selling may not last [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Precious metals are experiencing sharp short - term fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]