棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260205

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 14,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20%, and its night - session closed at 14,655 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.17%. CY2603 closed at 20,450 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, and its night - session closed at the same price. ICE US cotton 3 was at 62.22 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.13%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 319,129 lots, a decrease of 128,522 lots from the previous day, and its open interest was 1,022,636 lots, an increase of 10,863 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 3,086 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and its open interest was 3,653 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,438, an increase of 38, and the effective forecast was 1,369, a decrease of 3. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,714 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.19%. The price in Shandong was 16,056 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan or 0.07%. The price in Hebei was 16,093 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan or 0.17%. The 3128B index was 16,002 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.09%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,455 yuan/ton, unchanged. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or - 0.02% [1] - Spread Data: The CF3 - 5 spread was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The overall trading of cotton spot was fair, with low - basis transactions being better and the basis being generally stable. Some cotton merchants raised the basis by about 20 [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading activity in the pure - cotton yarn market gradually decreased, and the price remained stable. As more downstream enterprises took holidays, inland spinning enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders and arranging the Spring Festival holiday. The low - price supply of conventional yarn categories decreased, and the trading of low - count yarn was light. The spot market of imported yarn had relatively smooth sales, with partial trading being good, but overall it was more on the dull side [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures continued to decline. The situation of the near - month contract was similar to that of the same period last year, with high short - term delivery pressure and technical selling pressure. The market continued to focus on US cotton export data and Brazilian planting conditions to seek fundamental support [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a "neutral" state. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5]