橡胶：震荡运行20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume was 245,413 lots, down 8,865 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 159,917 lots, up 6,412 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 111,570 tons, up 700 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 31,124 lots, down 516 lots [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 185 yuan, down 5 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,085 yuan, down 35 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 120 yuan, down 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,200 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; STR20 was 1,985 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,975 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars [1]. - Substitute Products: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,925 - 1,930 US dollars/ton for near - port and 1,935 - 1,940 US dollars/ton for spot, up 15 US dollars; the price of Thai standard rubber was 1,920 - 1,925 US dollars/ton, up to 1,935 - 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of African 10 was 1,855 - 1,860 US dollars/ton, up to 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 15/10 US dollars [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 5.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.40 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.35 percentage points [2][3]. - As of February 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 853,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the spot inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.2%; Yunnan decreased by 0.8%; Vietnam 10 increased by 2%; the total inventory of NR decreased by 0.5%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Among them, the inventory of old full - latex decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, 3L increased by 5%, and the total inventory of RU increased by 1.4% [3]. - Some enterprises, mostly all - steel tire enterprises, ended their year - end work and entered the Spring Festival holiday. The production enthusiasm of semi - steel tire enterprises was still acceptable, and some enterprises had an increase in foreign trade orders recently and moderately increased production. The supply side showed differences, and the supply side of all - steel tires was weakening [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].