LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，海外裂解重组继续

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded continuously in the early stage, with transactions mostly concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs to be concerned [2] - Futures are fluctuating, upstream inventory has been transferred in the early stage, enterprise quotations remain stable, agent order - opening and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the production of standard products is at a medium level. Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased yet. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that the intensification of geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US dollar market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6918, with a daily increase of 0.77%, the trading volume is 481,865, and the position change is 17,366 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 05 contract is - 188 (previous day: - 185), and the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts is - 57 (previous day: - 51) [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6,730 yuan/ton, 6,880 yuan/ton, and 6,950 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Spot News - Futures are fluctuating, upstream inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotations remain stable, agent order - opening and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the production of standard products is at a medium level. Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The overseas quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased yet. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. It is expected that the intensification of geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US dollar market [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price has dropped significantly, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded continuously in the early stage, with transactions mostly concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased up to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased month - on - month, some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand before the Spring Festival still needs to be concerned [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1 [3]