PP：估值修复有限，L-PP价差承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PP valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure [1] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: PP2605 had a closing price of 6801 with a daily increase of 1.05%, trading volume of 458,481 and an increase in open interest of 11,151 [1] - Basis and Spread Changes: The 05 - contract basis was -151 (compared to -150 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 (compared to -27 the previous day) [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,580 yuan/ton, 6,650 yuan/ton, and 6,770 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated strongly, upstream pre - sale pressure was not significant, the basis was weakly stable, and the trading atmosphere was average [1] - Downstream demand at the end of the year was unlikely to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and warehouse receipts remained at a high level [1] - The PP US - dollar market price was weakening, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering prices to China was low, and export trading was difficult to improve due to the strengthening exchange rate and rising domestic market [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices rebounded and stabilized, and there was a valuation differentiation within olefins, with the internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE higher than those of PP [2] - Supply Side: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2] - Demand Side: Downstream new orders followed up with rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year was limited. PDH profit at the cost side remained at a low level, with multiple PDH units in South China having maintenance expectations and one PP unit in Northern Jiangsu planning to restart. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [3]