原油：地缘风险继续推高，短期观望

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Geopolitical risks continue to drive up oil prices, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.93, or 3.05%, to settle at $65.14 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $2.13, or 3.16%, to settle at $69.46 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $15.20, or 3.32%, to settle at $473.50 per barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The refining value difference and crude oil price difference slightly deteriorated for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Extra Light, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.89 (closed) and a spread change of -0.34 [2] - The arbitrage window for WTI MEH (cracking) and Arab Light remained closed and stable, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.00 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [2] - The economic efficiency of West African crude oil for WTI MEH (cracking) and Nemba did not significantly improve, with an arbitrage incentive of -$5.19 (closed) and a spread change of -0.19 [2] - The situation for Mars (coking) and Arab Heavy slightly improved, possibly due to the narrowing of the heavy crude oil discount, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.38 (closed) and a spread change of 0.75 [2] - The arbitrage window for Mars (coking) and Vasconia marginally improved and remained open, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.19 [2] - The price disadvantage for Mars (coking) and Castilla narrowed, but the arbitrage remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$2.42 (closed) and a spread change of 0.41 [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The price disadvantage of North Sea crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Forties widened, and the arbitrage window deepened and closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$3.31 (closed) and a spread change of -0.38 [4] - The price advantage of Algerian crude oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Saharan Blend significantly expanded, and the arbitrage space increased greatly, with an arbitrage incentive of $5.26 (open) and a spread change of 2.19 [4] - The price discount of Russian oil for Bonny Light (cracking) and Urals remained huge, and the arbitrage window remained at an extremely high level, with an arbitrage incentive of $24.43 (open) and a spread change of -1.21 [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - The trans - Atlantic freight decreased or the spread widened for Forties (cracking) and WTI MEH, and the economic efficiency increased, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.07 (open) and a spread change of 0.87 [4] - Similar to the trend of WTI MEH, the arbitrage conditions for Forties (cracking) and Eagle Ford improved, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.32 (open) and a spread change of 0.78 [4] - The West African crude oil arbitrage window for Forties (cracking) and Bonny Light was stable with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of $3.63 (open) and a spread change of -0.01 [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Russian oil's dominant position for Urals (cracking) and Saharan Blend was stable, and the arbitrage window of other oil types remained closed, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.31 (closed) and a spread change of 0.1 [5] - The spread slightly deteriorated for Urals (cracking) and Azeri Light, but the Russian oil - dominated pattern remained unchanged, with an arbitrage incentive of -$20.46 (closed) and a spread change of -0.28 [5] - The arbitrage conditions of West African oil for Urals (cracking) and Bonny Light marginally improved but were still uncompetitive, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.54 (closed) and a spread change of 0.22 [5] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - The competitive disadvantage of Murban relative to ESPO (cracking) further expanded, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.13 (closed) and a spread change of -1.38 [6] - The arbitrage window for ESPO (cracking) and Bonny Light deepened and closed, lacking economic efficiency, with an arbitrage incentive of -$15.33 (closed) and a spread change of -0.79 [6] - North Sea crude oil for ESPO (cracking) and Forties maintained a deep disadvantage with little change, with an arbitrage incentive of -$22.20 (closed) and a spread change of -0.26 [6] Key Market News - An Iranian senior source said that the US leaking the news of canceling negotiations showed a lack of sincerity, and Iran would not accept negotiations on any issues other than the nuclear issue [6] - The Iranian foreign minister said that the Iran - US nuclear negotiations were scheduled to be held in Muscat, Oman, at around 10 am local time on Friday (2 pm Beijing time on the 6th). Affected by the repeated news, oil prices gave back half of the previous gains [6] - An Iranian official source said that the Iran - US negotiations originally scheduled for the 6th in Oman had been canceled due to new conditions imposed by the US and differences between the two sides on negotiation issues [6] - OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's average daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela [6] - The Trump administration said that the US had agreed to cooperate with Japan, Mexico, and the EU to jointly develop key mineral resources for industries such as defense [7] Trend Strength - The crude oil trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]