国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Outlook: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Outlook: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - News: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Outlook: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - News: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Outlook: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - News: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend Strength: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - Outlook: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - Fundamentals: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - News: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - Outlook: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - News: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - Trend Strength: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].