申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2026, the continuous improvement of the stock market is the result of the joint action of factors such as the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the improvement of economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. In February, the overall situation is still expected to continue the phased positive pattern. February is in the window period of the "Spring Market", coupled with the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the profit expectations of the main lines such as AI and overseas expansion are clear. At the same time, the seasonal recovery of the consumer side and the implementation of investment projects will further enhance market confidence. However, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, there may be large fluctuations in overseas capital markets during the holiday, especially geopolitical risks, and potential disturbances need to be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4657.60, 4653.00, 4625.00, and 4576.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4698.80, 4693.60, 4665.00, and 4611.00 respectively. The price increases were 45.00, 42.40, 37.60, and 32.00 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 300 were 0.97, 0.91, 0.81, and 0.70 respectively. The trading volumes were 20774.00, 65238.00, 17565.00, and 7368.00 respectively, and the positions were 31278.00, 159248.00, 75130.00, and 27954.00 respectively. The changes in positions were - 4353.00, - 11006.00, - 1529.00, and - 546.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3032.80, 3033.00, 3025.20, and 2999.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 3071.60, 3071.80, 3065.80, and 3036.80 respectively. The price increases were 41.60, 42.20, 42.00, and 38.00 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the SSE 50 were 1.37, 1.39, 1.39, and 1.27 respectively. The trading volumes were 9444.00, 33658.00, 6464.00, and 3162.00 respectively, and the positions were 13571.00, 59111.00, 23822.00, and 10060.00 respectively. The changes in positions were - 2214.00, - 3666.00, - 1910.00, and - 151.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8295.80, 8282.00, 8189.60, and 8095.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8321.00, 8313.60, 8216.00, and 8105.00 respectively. The price increases were 36.40, 40.40, 33.00, and 22.00 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 500 were 0.44, 0.49, 0.40, and 0.27 respectively. The trading volumes were 29003.00, 100543.00, 37249.00, and 14601.00 respectively, and the positions were 36698.00, 145579.00, 95513.00, and 40043.00 respectively. The changes in positions were - 4487.00, - 5519.00, 1217.00, and - 542.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 8213.00, 8183.00, 8031.00, and 7885.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 8230.00, 8203.40, 8045.20, and 7888.60 respectively. The price increases were 19.20, 12.60, 10.60, and 8.20 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 1000 were 0.23, 0.15, 0.13, and 0.10 respectively. The trading volumes were 38126.00, 136596.00, 37630.00, and 16012.00 respectively, and the positions were 54982.00, 186743.00, 108653.00, and 53144.00 respectively. The changes in positions were - 3669.00, - 2801.00, 2692.00, and 1782.00 respectively [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 5.20, 0.20, - 7.40, and - 26.60 respectively, and the previous values were - 4.60, 0.20, - 13.80, and - 30.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4698.68, the trading volume was 264.88 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 6360.19 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4660.11, the trading volume was 265.55 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 6666.27 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 0.83 [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the index was 3069.24, the trading volume was 61.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 1698.82 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3034.58, the trading volume was 64.83 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 1927.80 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.14 [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the index was 8299.06, the trading volume was 268.86 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 5018.87 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8286.70, the trading volume was 272.23 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 5432.64 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 0.15 [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the index was 8207.12, the trading volume was 316.46 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 5162.15 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 8209.10, the trading volume was 299.22 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 5257.60 billion yuan. The price increase rate was - 0.02 [1]. - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different price increase rates. For example, the energy industry had a price increase rate of 4.80%, the raw materials industry had a rate of 0.66%, the industrial industry had a rate of 2.79%, and the optional consumer industry had a rate of 1.64%. The main consumer industry had a rate of 2.73%, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry had a rate of 1.19%, the real estate and finance industry had a rate of 1.46%, and the information technology industry had a rate of - 1.89%. The telecommunications business industry had a rate of - 3.29%, and the public utilities industry had a rate of 1.38 [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The previous values of the basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 300 were 0.12, - 5.08, - 33.68, and - 87.68 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 2.51, - 7.11, - 35.11, and - 83.91 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The previous values of the basis of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the SSE 50 were 2.36, 2.56, - 3.44, and - 32.44 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 1.78, - 1.58, - 9.38, and - 34.78 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The previous values of the basis of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 500 were 21.94, 14.54, - 83.06, and - 194.06 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 9.10, - 4.70, - 97.10, and - 191.70 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The previous values of the basis of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to the CSI 1000 were 22.88, - 3.72, - 161.92, and - 318.52 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3.90, - 26.10, - 178.10, and - 323.30 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4102.20, 14156.27, 8526.31, and 3311.51 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4067.74, 14127.11, 8524.43, and 3324.89 respectively. The price increase rates were 0.85%, 0.21%, 0.02%, and - 0.40% respectively [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26847.32, 54293.36, 6882.72, and 24603.04 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 26834.77, 54720.66, 6917.81, and 24780.79 respectively. The price increase rates were 0.05%, - 0.78%, - 0.51%, and - 0.72% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and asking the US to handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan carefully. He also had a video meeting with Russian President Putin, stating that China and Russia should promote the international community to adhere to fairness and justice and maintain global strategic stability [2]. - The central bank deployed key work in the credit market in 2026, requiring continuous improvement of high - quality financial services for major strategies, key areas, and weak links, and strengthening financial support in the consumption field, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [2]. - The EU Commission launched an in - depth investigation into Chinese wind power enterprises under the "Foreign Subsidies Regulation". The Ministry of Commerce responded that the investigation was discriminatory, and China would take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that efforts should be made to meet the basic housing needs of young people, develop affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and affordable housing for sale, and increase the area of affordable housing according to the needs of multi - child families [2]. - According to data from the China Index Academy, in January, 20 cities had a total of 118,000 second - hand housing transactions, a slight month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. However, the market still had prominent structural contradictions and obvious differentiation between new and second - hand housing [2]. - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will strongly support the innovation and development of the bio - manufacturing industry, and promote the transformation of the pharmaceutical industry from "follow - up innovation" to "systematic innovation". In 2026, attention will be paid to frontier technology fields such as new drug targets and mechanisms, AI - driven drug R & D, and cell and gene therapy, and efforts will be made to accelerate the launch of new and good drugs [2]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the National Fire and Rescue Bureau issued a notice to clarify the fire safety standards for new - type performance venues and optimize the performance approval process to promote the healthy and orderly development of new - type performance venues [2].