镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈，不锈钢，二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Nickel Futures Data: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 137,680, with changes of 2,850 compared to T - 1, - 6,690 compared to T - 5, - 5,380 compared to T - 10, 3,580 compared to T - 22, and 17,980 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 481,566, with a change of - 181,798 compared to T - 1 [3] - Stainless - steel Futures Data: The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 13,825, with changes of 240 compared to T - 1, - 640 compared to T - 5, - 895 compared to T - 10, 750 compared to T - 22, and 1,280 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 365,129, with a change of - 11,884 compared to T - 1 [3] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 136,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,030, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,250, etc. [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [4] - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [4] - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [6] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [6] - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [6] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [6] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [7] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]