铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment market has cooled at the beginning of the year, with a weak ADP employment report in January. The "high - price, weak - employment" pattern in the service sector continues. Global resource - related games are intensifying, and overseas market risk appetite is weak [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market continued to rebound on Wednesday, but the trading volume decreased. The market has entered a stage of rapid style rotation, with short - term shocks likely and a positive long - term outlook due to policy and fundamental support [3]. - For different commodities, their prices are affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand fundamentals, and different price trends are expected [2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - US 1 - month ADP employment increased by only 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The 1 - month ISM service PMI rose to 53.8, but employment was nearly stagnant and prices rebounded. Global resource - related games are intensifying, and overseas market risk appetite is weak [2]. - The A - share market continued to rebound on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4,100. The market entered a stage of rapid style rotation, with short - term shocks likely and a positive long - term outlook [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices rose and then gave back some gains. COMEX gold futures rose 1.04% to $4986.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.36% to $87.77 per ounce. - Investors are waiting for US employment data. The current precious metal price increase is a technical rebound, and blind chasing of the rise is not recommended [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell, and LME copper adjusted to around $13,000 for support. The domestic near - month C structure narrowed, and spot market trading improved. - The US 1 - month ADP employment was lower than expected, and the Fed may maintain a moderately loose stance. The Chilean Copper Commission predicts that copper production in 2026 will reach 5.613 million tons, a 3.7% year - on - year increase. Copper prices are expected to be in a short - term, shock - strong trend [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,690 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. LME aluminum closed at $3059/ton, down 1.29%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased. - The US 1 - month ADP employment data was far lower than expected, and the more authoritative non - farm data is delayed. The consumption off - season continues, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. Two previously - overhauled alumina plants in Guangxi plan to resume production on the 7th and 9th. - Overseas alumina prices have rebounded slightly, but the expected pressure of new production capacity in the future is high. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Cast aluminum prices follow cost fluctuations, and overall cost support has moved up. - Market purchasing sentiment has slightly improved, but pre - festival inventory - building willingness is low. Cast aluminum is expected to maintain an oscillating and consolidating pattern [11]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated horizontally during the day and weakly at night, and LME zinc oscillated. The US data is mixed, and market risk appetite is dragged down. - The zinc market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure and adjust [12][13]. Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead oscillated. Downstream battery inventory - building is basically completed, and demand is poor. - However, secondary lead smelters have reduced production due to losses, providing weak support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly and narrowly [14][15]. Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated weakly during the day and at night, and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar rebounded, and the earthquake in Myanmar may affect tin production. - Domestic downstream purchasing is limited, and tin prices are expected to continue to consolidate weakly after stabilizing [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures oscillated. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot trading has shrunk rapidly. Steel mills' maintenance is increasing, and production has decreased. - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures oscillated and fell. Steel mills' pre - festival inventory - building is coming to an end, and spot prices are weakening. - Supply pressure remains, and iron ore prices are under pressure due to the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, double - coking futures oscillated and rebounded. Indonesia has suspended coal exports, pushing up supply shortage sentiment. - Due to environmental policies, coking enterprise production is restricted, and supply is tightening. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.48%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.88%. US soybean prices rose sharply due to policy and trade sentiment. - South American supply is abundant, and pre - festival inventory - building is weakening. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.42%. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline in January, and production is expected to decrease. - The US biodiesel policy is positive for US soybean oil, and palm oil is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term [22][23].