黑色金属数据日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].