成本端扰动加强，关注需求端跟进情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side disturbances in the propylene market have intensified, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side. The main drivers in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - The supply of propylene has limited growth, with some PDH plants under maintenance and some restarted but not fully loaded. Downstream demand has rigid support, but as propylene prices rise, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The cost side has increased volatility [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6353 yuan/ton (+124), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is 137 yuan/ton (-124), the Shandong basis is 77 yuan/ton (-114), the operating rate is 70% (-1%), the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha is 251 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 110 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 442 yuan/ton (-53), and the in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (+1.29%), the production profit is - 230 yuan/ton (+40); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 73% (+0%), the production profit is - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (-1%), the production profit is 951 yuan/ton (-7); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-5%), the production profit is 1048 yuan/ton (-58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 84% (+3%), the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 69% (-6%), the production profit is - 857 yuan/ton (-107); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+3%), the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: Some PDH plants such as Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing continue to be under maintenance. Some plants have restarted but the supply increase of propylene is still limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants in the later stage [2] - Demand side: Downstream rigid demand support continues. However, as propylene prices reach high levels, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The operating rates of downstream industries show mixed trends [2] - Cost side: International oil prices have rebounded and then fluctuated, and the external propane market has also rebounded. The cost side of propylene has increased volatility in the short term [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - Inter - period: No strategy - Inter - variety: No strategy [3]