聚酯数据日报-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has declined significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still an oil price risk. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA output in January expected to hit a record high and no production cut plan during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply is still tight. The global effective capacity release is limited. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the polyester factory's production cuts have a limited negative impact on PTA [2] - Ethylene glycol: After the long - term slump of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February, with the duration of the conversion undetermined. This has led to a significant increase in speculative market demand, and the supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price increased from 449.4 yuan/barrel on February 3, 2026, to 462.4 yuan/barrel on February 4, 2026, a rise of 13 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1884.2 yuan/ton to 1857.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 26.47 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.5769 to 1.5528, a decrease of 0.0241; CFR China PX increased from 897 to 902, a rise of 5; PX - naphtha spread increased from 316 to 318, a rise of 3 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 5150 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, a rise of 68 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5080 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; spot processing fee increased from 371.2 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton, a rise of 33.8 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee increased from 436.2 yuan/ton to 483 yuan/ton, a rise of 46.8 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 68 to - 62, a rise of 6; PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 103,568 [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 3767 yuan/ton to 3788 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from - 179.84 yuan/ton to - 172.03 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price increased from 3670 yuan/ton to 3675 yuan/ton, a rise of 5 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from - 122 to - 103, a rise of 19 [2] - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 85.92%; PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 75.63%; MEG operating rate decreased from 62.48% to 61.67%, a drop of 0.81%; polyester load decreased from 79.76% to 79.24%, a drop of 0.52% [2] - POY150D/48F decreased from 7095 yuan/ton to 7020 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 272 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, a drop of 128 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F decreased from 7295 yuan/ton to 7255 yuan/ton, a drop of 40 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from - 28 yuan/ton to - 121 yuan/ton, a drop of 93 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F decreased from 8210 yuan/ton to 8155 yuan/ton, a drop of 55 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 187 yuan/ton to 79 yuan/ton, a drop of 108 yuan/ton; filament sales increased from 24% to 30%, a rise of 6% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 6555 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a drop of 6617 yuan/ton; polyester staple cash flow decreased from 82 yuan/ton to - 6588 yuan/ton, a drop of 6670 yuan/ton; staple fiber sales decreased from 65% to 64%, a drop of 1% [2] - Semi - bright chip increased from 5860 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton; chip cash flow decreased from - 63 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton, a drop of 3 yuan/ton; chip sales increased from 78% to 105%, a rise of 27% [2] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to shut down for maintenance as planned on the 15th. A 1.25 million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in mid - March [2]