板块带动,碳酸锂持续反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-02-05 03:11
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain favorable. In the short - term, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is advisable to focus on position - holding risks and adopt a range - trading strategy. If the price correction is significant, one can consider going long at low prices [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 147,220 yuan/ton, with a 1.32% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 311,897 lots, the holding volume was 359,912 lots (previous day: 355,770 lots), the basis was 4,100 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 34,114 lots, a change of 1,030 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 142,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 139,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,045 dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [2] Policy Impact - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism on the power generation side. This policy encourages the construction and operation of long - term energy storage and expands the compensation scope, which will have a positive impact on energy storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the current spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a decrease of 1,071 tons; downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventory is 50,850 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons. In December, the de - stocking pattern is expected to continue, but the pace has slowed down, and attention should be paid to whether there is an inventory inflection point at the end of the month [3] Strategy - Short - term: Focus on position - holding risks and mainly conduct range trading. - Unilateral trading: Consider going long at low prices if the price correction is large. - Inter - period trading: Not recommended. - Inter - variety trading: Not recommended. [4]