中辉有色观点-20260205

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to wait for stabilization. Gold's long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, while short - term market adjustments are ongoing. Silver has short - term adjustment pressure despite long - term positive factors [1]. - Copper is recommended for long - term holding. Although it has short - term fluctuations, long - term prospects are positive due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing pressure on rebounds. Short - term observation is advised, and long - term, buying on dips is recommended [1][10]. - Lead is under pressure due to losses in domestic lead smelting and weak terminal demand [1]. - Tin, aluminum, and nickel are all facing pressure on rebounds in the short term due to various factors such as supply and demand imbalances [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production cuts of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish, but risks should be carefully considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: Domestic and foreign gold and silver spot and futures markets showed signs of stabilization after a short - term rebound, but the sustainability needs further observation. The US employment market has challenges, with the ADP employment data in January significantly falling short of expectations [2]. - Reasons for the Plunge: The sharp drop in precious metals is due to the over - speculation of the "dollar credit crisis" and "global foreign exchange reserve re - balance" narratives in the short term, combined with excessive price increases leading to high volatility and forced liquidation [3]. - Long - term Support: The three pillars supporting the gold price - central bank gold purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty - remain stable. The long - term risk is still upward, but the short - term market needs time to adjust [3]. - Future Influencing Variables: The Fed's policy path, Trump's policy uncertainty, and AI technological progress will determine the future trend of gold [3]. - Strategy: In China, pay attention to the performance of gold around 1080 and silver around 21000. Continue to focus on reducing volatility [3]. Copper - Market Performance: The price of copper showed high - level oscillations. The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all declined to some extent, while the spot price of electrolytic copper increased [4]. - Industry Logic: The global copper mine shortage continues, with strikes in Chilean copper mines intensifying the shortage. The processing fee of copper concentrate has reached a new low. The supply of refined copper is expected to slow down, while the demand in the power, new energy vehicle, and big data center sectors is growing [5]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, take profits in a timely manner, and maintain long - term positions. In the short term, Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend under pressure [9]. - Industry Logic: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc production increased in January, but as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak and inventory is accumulating. Although traditional demand is weak, emerging fields may offset some of the demand gap [9]. - Strategy: In the short term, reduce positions and control risks. In the long term, consider buying on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [24200, 25200], and LME zinc on the range of [3250, 3350] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The aluminum price faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a downward trend [12]. - Industry Logic: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventory is accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. The overseas bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina industry has inventory pressure [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [22000 - 24500] [13]. Nickel - Market Performance: The nickel price faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel showed a slight rebound [15]. - Industry Logic: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. The domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season with increasing inventory [16]. - Strategy: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the increase narrowing at the end [19]. - Industry Logic: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and start - up rate are both declining, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand side may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for three weeks. However, regulatory risks are high [20]. - Strategy: Due to increased regulatory risks and trampling risks, hold positions cautiously within the range of [14500 - 156000] [21].