Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February. The downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/25. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12][13]. - For oils, in the short - term, oil prices have fallen from high levels. In the long - term, the bottom of oil prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then try to go long [15][19]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to realize seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, and the far - end contracts may continue to correct their valuations, maintaining a short - selling idea [20][21]. - For pigs, the current supply is large, and the spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the decline [23][24]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - Supply and Demand Data: StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - Supply and Demand Data: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China was 8800 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Protein Meal - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2247 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - Supply and Demand Data: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [12]. Oils - Market Quotes: On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8140 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9138 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9243 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,040 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - Supply and Demand Data: From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons. The January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [16][18]. Eggs - Market Quotes: On the previous day, most egg prices in China declined, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.07 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.24 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was gentle, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that most egg prices in China may decline in the short - term, and a few areas may remain stable [20]. Pigs - Market Quotes: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally declined with a large margin. The average price in Henan dropped 0.32 yuan to 12.22 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 11.77 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the breeding side was limited, most of them did not complete the daily slaughter plan, and the price - cutting sentiment was strong. In addition, the incremental space of the downstream slaughter side was limited. It is expected that pig prices may continue to decline today [23].
2026-02-05：五矿期货农产品早报-20260205
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-05 03:22