Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock Index: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious Metals: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - Black Building Materials: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - Energy Chemicals: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - Stock Index - Market Information: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - Basis Annualized Ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - Strategy: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - Treasury Bonds - Market Information: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - Strategy: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - Precious Metals - Market Information: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - Strategy: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper - Market Information: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - Strategy: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - Strategy: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - Lead - Market Information: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - Strategy: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - Alumina - Market Information: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - Stainless Steel - Market Information: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - Strategy: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - Strategy: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - Steel - Market Information: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - Iron Ore - Market Information: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - Strategy: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - Strategy: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - Rubber - Market Information: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - Strategy: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - Crude Oil - Market Information: Futures prices rose [63]. - Strategy: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - Methanol - Market Information: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - Strategy: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - Urea - Market Information: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - Strategy: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - Strategy: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - PVC - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - Strategy: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - Strategy: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - PTA - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - Strategy: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - Para - xylene - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - Strategy: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - Strategy: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - Strategy: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - Strategy: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - Strategy: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - Strategy: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - Oils and Fats - Market Information: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - Strategy: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - Sugar - Market Information: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - Strategy: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - Cotton - Market Information: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - Strategy: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/02/05星期四-20260205
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-05 03:22